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According to information coming from Iran, an acute internal conflict is brewing in the country. Against the backdrop of the military-political and socio-economic crisis that befell the Islamic Republic after the “12-Day War”, friction between reformists and conservatives has again intensified.

Current trends in the Middle East suggest a high probability of a conflict between the region's two most prominent Islamic nations: Turkey and Iran.

A series of events in recent months, with Azerbaijan at their center, indicates that regional and global centers of power are increasing pressure on Baku. This trend of comprehensive coercion will likely persist until Ilham Aliyev, having exhausted his final resources for maneuver, settles in a definitive strategic direction.

Since mid-2025, the Republic of Armenia has faced increasing challenges in the area of transit of import and export goods through Georgian territory. In April of this year, Georgian customs services began initiated a systematic effort to impede the transportation of Armenian cognac and wines destined for the Russian and Belarusian markets .

On July 9, 2025, Russian President Vladimir Putin signed two decrees, one of which dismissed Mikhail Bogdanov from his position of Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs, and the second – from the duties of the Russian leader’s Special Envoy for the Middle East and African countries.

The new and unprecedented round of Russian-Azerbaijani political and diplomatic escalation has revealed a significant asymmetry in the influence mechanisms between the countries.

In the second decade of July 2025, the situation surrounding Syria’s Druze communities reached a critical point of tension. Raids by Arab-Bedouin militias in Druze-populated areas of Syria, particularly in the As-Suwayda governorate, instigated large-scale clashes.

According to the South China Morning Post, which refers to some “informed sources”, during a meeting in Brussels with Kaja Kallas, the head of the European Union (EU) diplomacy, Minister of Foreign Affairs of the People’s Republic of China (PRC) Wand Yi stated that “Beijing would not benefit from Russia’s defeat in the Ukrainian conflict” .

The most radical of these reports was the statement by Eldar Namazov, former head of the Presidential Administration of Azerbaijan, which was released on July 3, 2025.

The recent escalation in Russia–Azerbaijan relations, based on observable indicators, appears to be a deliberate rather than spontaneous development.