Demographic Reshape of Ukraine: Conspiracy or Reality?
ARVAK Center Comment, May 12, 2025
The ARVAK Comment is devoted to the current situation around the Ukrainian conflict and the negotiation process between Russia and Ukraine through the mediation of the USA. Special attention is paid to the general neglect of the humanitarian situation and the fate of the civilians affected by the war. There is an abnormal disregard for the issues of eliminating the consequences of the humanitarian catastrophe and protecting the rights of the population, which are considered secondary, giving priority to territorial, geopolitical and economic interests. In this regard, various conspiracy theories about “demographic reshape” of Ukraine, including versions of the creation of “New Jerusalem”, the resettlement of African and Asian migrants, as well as the deportation of Palestinians to here. Despite the skeptical attitude towards these theories, ARVAK notes the fact of the catastrophic degradation of Ukraine’s demography and the absence of issues of restoring the previous balance and autochthonous environment in the conflict zone on the negotiation agenda.
Negotiations between Russia and Ukraine, mediated by the United States, are difficult, and a final settlement of the conflict is not yet in sight. The situation is extremely complicated, because despite the assurances of all parties (including the mediator), that there is a will to establish peace, the situation “on the ground” is gradually becoming more and more complicated, and the fighting continues to be fierce. It appears that this is not so much about the attempts by the antagonistic parties to capture more favorable positions on the front line in order to monetize these achievements in the final stage of signing a peace agreement. The fact is that the intensification of mutual attacks on civilians on both sides of the front could indicate some plans to torpedo the talks.
The information released by the parties after each round of negotiation is not systematized and is extremely contradictory. A summary of fragmentary news from open sources does not give a clear picture of the acceptable configuration of compromises between Moscow and Kyiv necessary to end the bloodshed. The parties, apparently, have not yet fully decided on their red lines, which, coupled with the current dynamics of hostilities on the frontline and the permanent change of the geopolitical climate in the world, threatens to stretch the “Ukrainian peace process” for an indefinite time, or to completely curtail it until the final and complete defeat of one of the parties involved.
As evidenced by the international media and the expert community, the main discussions and tensions revolve around the questions of the future international status of the Ukrainian territories already under Russian control; the possibility of introducing “peacekeeping forces” on the dividing line and their composition; on Ukraine’s prospects of joining the EU and NATO and the mechanisms of quantitative and technological restrictions on the Ukrainian military. In addition to these main spheres of negotiations, scattered information is spreading about dozens of other “secondary” issues that have become the subject of consideration by the negotiators.
And here it is particularly noticeable that among the variety of the negotiation topics, the least attention is being paid to the future of the indigenous civilian population of the Ukrainian regions, engulfed in the hostilities and currently uninhabitable due to the destroyed housing stock, lack of critical infrastructure and the catastrophic situation with mine and unexploded ordnance safety. Judging by open sources, Kyiv and Washington say virtually nothing about the humanitarian side of the “Ukrainian war” at the negotiation table. Moreover, it seems that the issue is being completely ignored in the general context of the Ukrainian case in the international arena and in the global media.
There is a strong impression that eliminating the consequences of a humanitarian catastrophe within the war zone, as well as the protecting of the fundamental rights of the population in the affected regions, are considered as secondary issues for one of the parties to the conflict and the interested Western actors. The mainstream trends clearly give priority to territorial, geopolitical and purely economic interests related to the Ukrainian issue.
Considering the well-known characteristics of high politics, this issue might seem unremarkable. However, the lack of focus on the rights of war-affected Ukrainians and refugees as a tool to pressure Russia is a confusing nuance in this situation. This is outright nonsense, given that we are talking about the rights of over 10 million people who have been forcibly displaced since the commencement of the Russian Special Military Operation. According to the UN, as of November 2024, about 6.8 million Ukrainian refugees were compelled to depart the state, while 3.6 million internally displaced persons (IDPs) from the war zone found refuge in other regions of the country(2). These numbers hardly circulate in the media coverage of the negotiation process and do not appear in the rhetoric of Washington and Kyiv, which, both in the context of negotiations with the RF and in the bilateral discussions format mostly touch upon the topic of territorial redistribution, the fate of the Ukrainian fertile lands, rare earth metals and the management of the financial funds created to restore infrastructure destroyed during the war.
Thus, the nominally prevalent beneficiaries of the initiated peace process – the residents of Ukraine who suffered from the war – in practical terms are not a factor and do not appear as the main beneficiaries of peace. This will result in a complete transformation of the philosophy of the Ukrainian conflict, thereby contributing to the spread of various theories, including those that have been long-voiced.
In this discourse, first of all, about the so-called “Israel 2” according to the logic of which the war in Ukraine could allegedly lead to a mass exodus of the Israeli people from the Middle East and their settlement of the economically and climatically attractive territories of Ukraine(3). According to other sources, this program is called “New Jerusalem” and has the goal of ensuring the safety of Jews in the face of looming great catastrophe in the Middle East. This catastrophe, if it were to occur, could potentially result in the defeat of Israel in its fight against the Arab-Islamic coalition and the complete loss of the Jewish population from their historical homeland. Taking into account such expectations, the Ukrainian “Wild Field” (Novorossiya), due to its geostrategic position, mild continental climate, rich deposits and fertile lands, is considered an ideal option for the “transfer” of Israeli statehood. This region was previously developed by Eastern European Jewish communities, whose descendants formed the 19th and 20th-century Jewish community. This community became the foundation of the world Zionist movement, ultimately leading to the establishment of a Jewish state in Palestine.
Another conspiracy theory that has gained significant traction is the widespread assertion that, according to the plans of the collective West, Ukrainian lands should be cleared of the Slavic population in favor of immigrants from Africa and Afghanistan. The demographic shifts resulting from these flows have already upset the demographic balance in the United States and, mainly, in Europe(4). According to this version, Western countries, convinced of the bankruptcy of the idea of multiculturalism and “full integration” of people of Eastern and African descent into the Western civilization, now decided to redirect non-integrable, culturally and mentally alien “elements” to Ukraine. Instead, they are supposedly ready to accept Ukrainians, who in all respects are more easily amenable to cultural assimilation and mental reorganization. Allegedly, this is why Europe has calmly and without any special obstacles provided asylum to about 7 million Ukrainians and continues to accept new flows of migrants who are leaving en masse the regions of Eastern and Central Ukraine that are close to the combat zone.
And finally, an additional version that is currently in circulation suggests that Ukrainian territories are being deliberately cleared for the deportation of Palestinians in accordance with a plan devised by Donald Trump and Benjamin Netanyahu. As evidence, the supporters of this version cite a cryptic statement by the Israeli Prime Minister, delivered on April 7, 2025, at a meeting with the American President at the White House, which official representatives of the Israeli authorities subsequently had to repeatedly explain as a translation error and correct it(5). It should be noted that the information concerning the study by Washington and Tel Aviv of the “Ukrainian option” for the deportation and resettlement of Gaza residents commenced prior to the issuance of B. Netanyahu’s scandalous statement. Hypothetically, we cannot exclude the possibility of Washington considering such an option, since it is known that regarding the deportation of Palestinian citizens the American administration has also approached other countries located far beyond the Middle East and not directly related to the conflict in Gaza and its parties(6). Considering this, the “Ukrainian option” should hardly be perceived as the speculation among conspiracy theorists, especially after the eccentric ideas put forth by D. Trump, which have become a long ceased topic of discussion within the international community. Another question is that the idea of relocating 1.5 million Palestinians to Ukraine could have been considered and then immediately rejected by its authors themselves (D. Trump and B. Netanyahu), since there are two good reasons for this. First, a violent “Palestinian exodus” appears to be an urgent task for its initiators, while the demographic reshape of Ukraine and the destruction of its national idea, constitutes the foundational principle of Ukrainian statehood, are processes that will require a more prolonged duration. Secondly, the foundation of Palestinian cities and conglomerations where, according to the first version, the Jews should have laid “New Jerusalem” – is nonsense. Both the plan to forcibly deport Palestinians and the proposed search for a new “Promised Land” for Jews, are ultimately caused by the desire to historically and geographically separate two “cousin” nations claiming the Biblical Jerusalem. Moreover, if Ukraine is considered a potential solution to this problem, then a new intersection of the mentioned nations on its territory is not the way. In this context, theoretically, only the version of the Jewish exodus to Ukraine and the version of the mass resettlement of African and Asian migrants there will not contradict each other. Conspiracy theorists tend to believe that for Jews to master the “New Jerusalem” millions of workers – efficient, but not pretentious and easily controlled – will be required. And the Slavic people are not a viable option, nor should they be considered as such, so their historical memory and ties to the “Wild Field” must be eradicated by their self-willed escape from the war, and therefore – from their homeland.
One can be skeptical about these versions raised by conspiracy theorists. Perhaps much of them does not stand up to objective criticism and pragmatic analysis, but the fact is that the demographic landscape of Ukraine has been catastrophically degrading since the onset of the confrontation with Russia(7), and the announced negotiation agenda on the future of this country contains not a word about the intentions and mechanisms to restore the preexisting balance and autochthonous environment.
Consequently, the Ukrainian context gives rise to a number of salient questions. It is imperative to direct attention toward these phenomena, despite their potential interactions with conspiracy theories that lack complete credibility or scientific validation. In the context of scientific inquiry, it is noteworthy that throughout history, the civilized world has witnessed numerous migratory patterns that have profoundly impacted the course of history and the apparent stability of the status quo. These migratory patterns (including the “Great Migration of Nations” of the 4th–7th centuries), have exemplified the transformative potential of human mobility and the potential for radical change in the historical landscape.
(1) “Let them not be offended by the answer”: “The Ukrainian Armed Forces hit the market in Aleshki, killing 7 people”. Gazeta.ru (in Rus.), 01.05.2025, https://www.gazeta.ru/army/2025/05/01/20968724.shtml (download date: 09.05.2025); “The Russians hit the Barabashovo market and restaurant: details of the attack on Kharkov on May 6”. UKR.NET (in Rus.), 05.05.2025, https://www.ukr.net/ru/news/details/video/111137180.html (download date: 09.05.2025).
(2) “Ukraine: the UN released updated data on refugees and internally displaced persons”. UN News (in Rus.), 25.11.2024, https://news.un.org/ru/story/2024/11/1458726 (download date: 09.05.2025).
(3) Burt V., “Israel… in Ukraine: the Jewish state can “move” to the banks of the Dnieper”. Fond Strategicheskoy Kulturi (in Rus.), 26.10.2023, https://www.fondsk.ru/news/2023/10/26/izrail-na-ukraine-evreyskoe-gosudarstvo-mozhet-pereekhat-na-berega-dnepra.html (download date: 10.05.2025).
(4) Davydov D., “Ghetto in a madhouse.” Who will populate Ukraine instead of Ukrainians”. Regnum (in Rus.), 09.10.2024, https://regnum.ru/article/3921584/ (download date: 10.05.2025).
(5) “Resettle 1.5 million Palestinians in Ukraine”: what Netanyahu actually said and why the embarrassment occurred.” Obozrevatel (in Rus.), 07.04.2025, https://www.obozrevatel.com/politics-news/pereselit-1-5-mln-palestintsev-v-ukrainu-chto-na-samom-dele-skazal-netanyahu-i-pochemu-proizoshel-konfuz-video.htm (download date: 10.05.2025).
(6) Damon A., “Inspired by Nazi ‘Madagascar Plan’, US and Israel Aim to Expel Palestinians to East Africa”. World Socialist Web Site (in Rus.), 07.03.2025, https://www.wsws.org/ru/articles/2025/03/17/pale-m17.html (download date: 10.05.2025).
(7) Sisak I., Kolesnichenko T., Gutterman I., “There will never be 52 million of us again”. How the war changed the demography of Ukraine”. Nastoyasheye Vremya (in Rus.), 03.24.2025, https://www.currenttime.tv/a/kak-voyna-izmenila- demografiyu-ukrainy/33354244.html/ (download date: 11.05.2025).
