{"id":20216,"date":"2026-08-12T22:07:38","date_gmt":"2026-08-12T18:07:38","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/arvak.am\/?p=20216"},"modified":"2026-08-15T19:02:21","modified_gmt":"2026-08-15T15:02:21","slug":"the-mecca-agreement-geopolitical-dynamics-and-strategic-challenges-of-the-new-alliance","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/arvak.am\/en\/the-mecca-agreement-geopolitical-dynamics-and-strategic-challenges-of-the-new-alliance\/","title":{"rendered":"The \u201cMecca Agreement\u201d: Geopolitical dynamics and strategic challenges of the new alliance"},"content":{"rendered":"

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ARVAK Center comment, August 15, 2026 <\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

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1. The \u201cMecca Agreement\u201d and the institutionalization of the new alliance<\/h4>\n

On August 7, 2026, in Mecca, the leaders of Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Pakistan \u2013 Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman Al Saud, President Recep Tayyip Erdo\u011fan, and Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif \u2013 signed a trilateral pact establishing a military-political alliance.
Widespread media resonance forced officials from all three states to publicly downplay the significance of the agreement. This restraint stems from a desire to smooth over a complex information environment and minimize the risk of opposition from global powers that view the new treaty as a challenge to their own interests. In particular, Turkish Vice President Cevdet Y\u0131lmaz rushed to assure that the document is purely defensive in nature and is not directed against third parties. Similarly, Saudi Deputy Foreign Minister Raid bin Khalid Krimli emphasized that the pact \u201cdoes not aim to create a military axis or any kind of bloc\u201d. However, contrary to official rhetoric, the analytical community is virtually unanimous: this represents the formation of a full-fledged military-political alliance designed to fundamentally reformat the security architecture in South Asia and the Middle East.
Although the official text of the treaty, dubbed the \u201cMecca Agreement\u201d, has not yet been released to the public, international media reports indicate that its central clause establishes the principle of collective security. Any armed attack on one of the contracting parties will be regarded as aggression against all alliance members, legitimizing the deployment of any measures and assets to provide mutual military assistance. Additionally, the agreement codifies a drive toward deeper defense-industrial integration: the states intend to conduct mutual deliveries and gratis transfers of armaments, ensure technology transfer, and engage in joint R&D within the defense-industrial complex. In particular, Ankara\u2019s plans to involve Saudi Arabia and Pakistan in the design and serial production program for the state-of-the-art Turkish KAAN fighter jet are noted.<\/p>\n

2. Genesis of the \u201cSunni axis\u201d: From \u201cSunni NATO\u201d to strategic autonomy<\/h4>\n

The signing of the \u201cMecca Agreement\u201d did not come as a surprise. International media first began loudly discussing preparations by Riyadh, Ankara, and Islamabad to form a tripartite alliance \u2013 unofficially dubbed the \u201cSunni axis\u201d or \u201cSunni NATO\u201d \u2013 in early January 2026.
In its publication dated 10.01.2026 (\u201cThe alliance of Turkey, Saudi Arabia, and Pakistan amid unrest in the IRI\u201d), the ARVAK Center suggested that preliminary consultations among the interested states on forming a Sunni military-political bloc had begun long before the winter of 2025\u20132026. However, this process accelerated noticeably against the backdrop of a anticipated new attack by the U.S. and Israel against Iran. The leadership in Islamabad, Riyadh, and Ankara operated under the assumption of the inevitable fall of the \u201ctheocratic Shiite regime\u201d and the potential outbreak of a civil war. These expectations necessitated an emergency acceleration of the alliance project, aimed both at effectively preventing risks associated with the collapse of the IRI and at covertly preparing for the partition of the \u201cIranian heritage\u201d.<\/p>\n

3. The U.S. shift in course and the erosion of U.S.-Israeli dominance<\/h4>\n

The \u201cNew U.S. National Security Strategy\u201d, published in December 2025, also appears to have acted as a catalyst to expedite the negotiation process. Its key conceptual premise codifies a shift in Washington\u2019s course: a transition from global and Near Eastern \u201cliberal interventionism\u201d to a \u201cmultilevel delegation\u201d of authority to regional partners. Thus, the creation of a tripartite alliance of Islamic states was driven by a desire to ensure a stable balance of security across a vast region amid the announced drawdown of the U.S. military presence.
In its publication dated 01.05.2026 (\u201cGeopolitical architecture and strategic determinants of the \u2018Sunni NATO\u2019\u201d), ARVAK provided a detailed analysis of the motivations driving the largest Islamic nations to establish the alliance, taking into account the fundamental circumstance that, contrary to expectations, the Iranian \u201ctheocratic regime\u201d was not overthrown, the Islamic Republic of Iran avoided civil war, and the U.S. has shown no signs to date of reducing its military footprint in the Middle East.
Despite regional developments diverging from initial forecasts, the formation of the \u201cSunni NATO\u201d was not suspended. This clearly underscores the determination of Ankara, Islamabad, and Riyadh to pursue a course independent of Washington\u2019s geopolitical plans and to complete the formation of a Sunni center of influence without regard for the position of the United States. By all appearances, key Islamic states took advantage of the conflict between the U.S.-Israeli coalition and the Iran-led \u201cShiite axis\u201d to convince Tel Aviv and Washington of the strategic expediency of supporting this alliance.
The validity of this version is corroborated by data recently circulating in the global information space regarding the deep historical roots of the \u201cSunni axis\u201d initiative, as well as the direct roles played by the United States and Israel in its inception. Specifically, Iranian media channels disseminated a 2012 video recording featuring an admission by former head of Israel\u2019s Shabak service (1996\u20132000), Admiral Ami Ayalon. His comments reveal that Tel Aviv was the original architect of the \u201cSunni axis\u201d idea, intending to construct an effective regional buffer against the \u201cShiite threat\u201d epitomized by Iran. Concurrently, excerpts from past speeches by Turkish President R. T. Erdo\u011fan were made public, emphasizing the duty of Sunni states to guarantee Israel’s security. This evidence vividly illustrates the deep engagement of the U.S. and Israel in fostering intra-confessional division within the Muslim world, the practical manifestation of which became the structured Sunni partnership program.
However, these circumstances do not rule out the possibility that the \u201cSunni NATO\u201d project \u2013 initially launched by Israel with direct assistance from the U.S. \u2013 subsequently lost the interest of Tel Aviv and Washington or was deemed an erroneous strategic misstep altogether. Nonetheless, this posed no barrier to the Sunni states, which pressed ahead with the military-political integration process using their own momentum.
Practice demonstrates that in geopolitics, there are no eternal constants. The dynamics of global processes and the permanent volatility of the Middle East regularly produce unexpected transformations. Shifts in regional players\u2019 priorities and the development of new force-balance formulas are largely driven by the ambiguous consequences of the \u201cArab Spring\u201d, the declining role of hydrocarbons in global energy structures, and the growing prominence of trans-Eurasian overland transit routes. In this new Near Eastern reality, the U.S.-Israeli tandem likely came to doubt the unequivocal benefits of a Sunni center of influence. Furthermore, the emergence of such a pole may well have been perceived by Washington and Tel Aviv as a direct challenge to their regional dominance.
It appears that the \u201cShiite threat\u201d to the State of Israel and U.S. regional interests was significantly overstated, while the Sunni states \u2013 originally envisioned as the core of an anti-Iranian coalition \u2013 consistently realigned their positions in contradiction to Tel Aviv\u2019s strategic planning. Turkey, for instance, not only openly challenges Israel\u2019s dominant role in the Eastern Mediterranean and Levant but also demonstrates a clear intent to untether itself from the fairway of Washington\u2019s and NATO\u2019s Middle Eastern strategy. For its part, Saudi Arabia \u2013 under the de facto leadership of Prince Mohammed bin Salman \u2013 has adopted a far more radical posture on the Palestinian issue, heading an anti-Israeli wing within the Arab League and systematically blocking the expansion of the \u201cAbraham Accords\u201d platform across the broader Arab world. Egypt, which has not yet signed the \u201cMecca Agreement\u201d but is signaling the outlines of its future entry into the \u201cSunni axis\u201d, is similarly nearing a flashpoint in its relations with Israel over Palestine, while simultaneously forging a joint line with Turkey across the Eastern Mediterranean, the Red Sea, and the broader Middle East. Meanwhile, Pakistan maintains a firm rejection of the U.S. Central Asian course, deepens multi-tiered partnership with Beijing as Washington\u2019s primary global rival, and regularly issues warnings to Tel Aviv, declaring its readiness to leverage its nuclear capabilities to defend Islamic states and movements under attack from Israel\u2019s \u201cexpansionist\u201d and \u201cgenocidal\u201d actions.
It is telling that Pakistan was absent from Ami Ayalon\u2019s original \u201cSunni Alliance\u201d blueprint. However, having strengthened bilateral ties with Ankara, Riyadh, and Cairo over the past two decades, Islamabad emerged in January of this year as a primary contender for bloc membership, solidifying that status with its signature on the \u201cMecca Agreement\u201d. This divergence clearly indicates that the U.S. and Israel eventually lost control over the project. For Washington and Tel Aviv, incorporating an Islamic nuclear power \u2013 one demonstrating hostility toward the Jewish state and strained relations with the U.S. dating back to the 1990s \u2013 into a \u201cSunni NATO\u201d appeared counterproductive. Moreover, following the Soviet withdrawal from Afghanistan and the waning of U.S. interest, Islamabad consistently reoriented its foreign policy and economic alignment toward the PRC. Consequently, Pakistan\u2019s accession to the alliance became viable only after the U.S.-Israeli tandem was sidelined from the creation process.
This gives reason for a number of analysts to suggest that the Sunni states \u2013 first and foremost Turkey \u2013 viewed the U.S.-Israeli initiative from the outset not as a tool to counter an artificially inflated \u201cShiite threat\u201d, but through the prism of a long-term strategy. Its ultimate objective is seen as the expulsion of the United States from the region, the elimination of Israeli influence, and the establishment in the Near East of an alternative multilateral power pole capable of sovereign control over local resources and transit corridors, as well as developing its own collective security model.<\/p>\n

4. Role reversal: Iran and Pakistan in the new regional architecture<\/h4>\n

Since the 1990s, Turkey has served as the key driver behind creating a military-political bloc of Islamic states. The origins of this concept trace back to the \u201cMill\u00ee G\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u201d (\u201cNational Vision\u201d) doctrine formulated by Necmettin Erbakan, the founder of Turkish political Islam and former Prime Minister. Later, this idea materialized into the geopolitical project known as ASRIKA (an acronym for ASya \u2013 Asia, Rusya \u2013 Russia\/Eurasia, \u0130KA \/ Afrika \u2013 Africa), drafted by the ASSAM center for strategic studies. Closely linked to Turkey\u2019s current leadership, ASSAM was headed by retired General Adnan Tanr\u0131verdi \u2013 founder of the first Turkish PMCs, which Ankara actively deployed in Nagorno-Karabakh, Syria, and across the African continent.
N. Erbakan\u2019s original framework envisioned deep economic and defense integration across the Islamic world \u2013 featuring a common market, collective security, and a unified currency (the Islamic Dinar) \u2013 enabling liberation from the dictates of the U.S., NATO, and the IMF. Although that plan remained a romantic utopia at the time due to various subjective and objective factors, Erbakan\u2019s successors who later assumed power, including current leader R. T. Erdo\u011fan, deemed it feasible to put into practice. The modified doctrine was re-vectored toward the Sunni world and embraced collegial principles of alliance governance.
Updated and tailored to contemporary geopolitical realities, the project resonated deeply with Sunni powers. Their interest is driven by security vulnerabilities, economic crises, and long-term uncertainty in a volatile region spanning from Africa to Central Asia. Recognizing this, Ankara seized a lucrative opportunity to leverage the anti-Iranian initiatives of the U.S.-Israeli alliance to elevate its own integration agenda to the global geopolitical stage.
Thus, the waning interest of the U.S. and Israel in the project did not prevent the Sunni powers from realizing it to advance their own interests. This naturally raises concern in Washington and especially in Tel Aviv, where references to the \u201cShiite Crescent\u201d and \u201cShiite threat\u201d have conspicuously diminished in official rhetoric, yielding ground to terms like \u201cSunni axis\u201d and \u201cSunni NATO\u201d.
The signing of the \u201cMecca Agreement\u201d marks the initial phase in the practical realization of the \u201cSunni Alliance\u201d concept. This nascent bloc consolidates formidable assets: a combined population of roughly 400 million (nearly 5% of the global total), active military personnel numbering up to 1 million, Pakistan\u2019s tactical nuclear arsenal, Saudi Arabia\u2019s immense financial and energy reserves, and Turkey\u2019s advanced industrial-technological sector. Of particular import is the unique geographical positioning of the member states at key geostrategic and logistical nodes across Eurasia. Given the bloc\u2019s openness to new members and the potential entry of Egypt (population 100 million), real conditions are emerging for the rise of a self-sustaining global pole of influence capable of thoroughly reformatting the security architecture from Gibraltar to China.
However, while achievable in theory, the alliance faces an extremely challenging path in practice. The ARVAK Center previously detailed the objective, systemic hurdles to establishing a “Sunni Alliance” as an independent geopolitical construct in its publication dated 07.05.2026 (\u201cSystemic contradictions and prospects for the formation of a \u2018Sunni NATO\u2019\u201d). In this context, the focus must shift to subjective external factors \u2013 the challenges and risks that will inevitably confront the alliance as a result of deliberate opposition from the U.S.-Israeli tandem.<\/p>\n

5. Containment strategies of Washington and Tel Aviv<\/h4>\n

It can be predicted with a high degree of probability that Washington and Tel Aviv will attempt either to establish multi-layered influence over the emerging geopolitical bloc to direct its internal evolution, or resort to radical steps to accelerate the dissolution of this still-unstable structure. The primary goal of the tandem is to ensure total control over ongoing dynamics. To achieve this, they may exploit internal friction among the Sunni states while reinforcing external counterweights and containment mechanisms. Should effective management and containment prove impossible, the U.S. and Israel will seek to dismantle the alliance entirely, as it poses a direct threat to their regional supremacy.
Consequently, Washington and Tel Aviv will continue to intensify their strategic partnership with New Delhi and push the IMEC megaproject. Concurrently, the White House may adopt fundamentally new approaches to dialogue with the Taliban movement in Afghanistan. Alongside this, the United States will attempt to expand its leverage over Riyadh: both by manipulating US Treasury bonds \u2013 which form the bedrock of the Kingdom\u2019s foreign assets \u2013 and through pressure tied to the bilateral \u201cnuclear program\u201d, an agreement on which Washington prudently secured just a week prior to the signing of the Mecca pact.
On one hand, Tel Aviv will likely maintain pressure on Ankara in Syria and the Eastern Mediterranean, begin working in tandem with Washington to heavily exploit the \u201cKurdish factor\u201d, and potentially take steps toward covert global support for the Russian Federation to preserve its strategic weight in the Caucasus and Black Sea region. On the other hand, the U.S. and Israel could initiate pressure on Brussels to soften and liberalize the terms of European integration for Turkey. Such a move would initially weaken Erdo\u011fan\u2019s domestic political authority and spark division among Turkish elites and citizens regarding the nation\u2019s future trajectory and civilizational choice.
Overall, the U.S.-Israeli tandem possesses a wide array of avenues to contain and control the \u201cSunni axis\u201d. Perhaps the most extraordinary step in this direction would be terminating confrontation with the \u201cShiite axis\u201d and pursuing a partial \u201crehabilitation\u201d of the Islamic Republic of Iran. While Iran originally served as the catalyst for assembling a \u201cSunni NATO\u201d, it is now seen as the most effective natural counterweight to the new triangle of power formed by Ankara, Islamabad, and Riyadh. Such a geopolitical maneuver is hypothetically viable given the monumental challenges facing Israel and the threat to Washington\u2019s plans to contain China while preserving its own dominance on the Asian continent.<\/p>\n

Conclusion<\/h4>\n

It is symbolic that the Sunni states\u2019 pact was executed in Mecca, the embodiment of unity within the Islamic world. Under these conditions, Washington and Tel Aviv are unlikely to forgo the opportunity to demonstrate once again that genuine unity within the Islamic world remains unattainable.<\/p>\n

\n

[1]<\/a>The original (in Rus.) was posted on our website on 12.08.2026.<\/p>\n

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