{"id":19492,"date":"2026-04-18T15:20:13","date_gmt":"2026-04-18T11:20:13","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/arvak.am\/?p=19492"},"modified":"2026-04-20T16:51:44","modified_gmt":"2026-04-20T12:51:44","slug":"tripp-project-geopolitical-risks-and-new-regional-realities","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/arvak.am\/en\/tripp-project-geopolitical-risks-and-new-regional-realities\/","title":{"rendered":"TRIPP project: geopolitical risks and new regional realities"},"content":{"rendered":"

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ARVAK Center comment, April 20, 2026[1]<\/sup><\/strong><\/a><\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

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1. <\/strong>Preparation dynamics and expert skepticism<\/strong><\/h4>\n

The situation surrounding Iran has actualized the discussion regarding the degree of realizability of the Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity<\/em> (TRIPP) under new conditions. According to a number of experts monitoring this issue since the signing of the Washington Declaration on August 8, 2025, the project is of fundamental importance for U.S. policy in the region; consequently, its implementation is viewed as having no alternative, although the possibility of a temporary postponement of practical steps in light of recent events around Iran is not ruled out.<\/p>\n

Skeptics, in turn, insist on a cardinal shift in the regional balance of power, which will inevitably affect the prospects of TRIPP \u2013 at the very least in terms of revising the configuration of its geopolitical and financial-economic beneficiaries. At most, the project will remain on paper or be terminated by one of the signatory parties due to its futility and inconsistency with current realities.<\/p>\n

According to open sources, the project participants are currently continuing preparatory work: expert working groups from the USA regularly visit Armenia, construction assessments and design work are being carried out, and legal issues and a wide range of technical details are being coordinated. Simultaneously, Azerbaijan is nearly completing the complex laying of communications to the Armenian border. Turkey is also actively conducting construction and repair work on the Kars\u2013I\u011fdir\u2013Aralik\u2013Dilucu railway route. Formally, Ankara is not a party to the TRIPP project; however, amid the financial and economic crisis in Turkey, significant expenditures on laying the railway path to Nakhichevan indicate that Ankara has received certain guarantees from Washington regarding the \u201cTrump Route<\/em>\u201d having no alternative.<\/p>\n

By external appearances, the preparation process is proceeding at its usual pace, but several factors exist that, in combination, could lead to the collapse of this initiative in the near future.<\/p>\n

2. <\/strong>The Iranian war factor: nullification of security guarantees<\/strong><\/h4>\n

The Islamic Republic of Iran (IRI), at the level of high-ranking officials from the conservative wing (including Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who was killed in a U.S.\u2013Israeli attack), has repeatedly stated that the TRIPP project represents a threat to Tehran\u2019s interests and its implementation near Iranian borders would be unacceptable. Iranian authorities view TRIPP as a platform for establishing a U.S. military and intelligence presence directly on their northern frontiers and perceive a potential threat related to the strengthening of the Turkic factor in the region, which could have negative consequences both for external pressure and internal national-separatist tendencies.<\/p>\n

Tehran also expresses concerns regarding the potential for the United States to block Iranian access to Armenia and Georgia in the Syunik region, which ensures the IRI\u2019s trade and logistical link with the Black Sea basin countries and Europe. Finally, another motive for rejecting TRIPP is the threat of losing a significant lever of influence over Baku \u2013 the connection between Azerbaijan and its Nakhijevan exclave through Iranian territory. Tehran has repeatedly proposed that Baku focus on investing in and expanding the infrastructure of this specific route as the most optimal for communication between Turkic countries, guaranteeing its security from their side. In light of the trend toward Turkic integration, Iran viewed this transport-energy corridor as a potential tool for control over the Organization of Turkic States (OTS) and a source of significant transit revenue.<\/p>\n

Nevertheless, Iranian concerns and initiatives were ignored during the signing of the TRIPP declaration at the White House. Tehran\u2019s threats were perceived with skepticism in Washington, Baku, Ankara, and Yerevan, based on the conviction that the Iranian authorities, despite their harsh rhetoric, would not resort to radical forceful measures against the \u201cTrump Road<\/em>\u201d.<\/p>\n

To a certain extent, the categorical tone of the Iranian authorities did indeed dissonate with their actual readiness for forceful steps aimed at disrupting the project. Iran feared a new clash with the USA after the \u201c12-day\u201d July war of 2025, and the TRIPP agreement was hardly viewed by Iranian elites then as a casus belli<\/em> requiring immediate radical actions against the USA, Azerbaijan, and Armenia. Moreover, at a certain point, the moderate reformist wing in the Iranian political leadership even began to promote the thesis that the \u201cTrump Route\u201d<\/em>, provided certain Tehran requirements were met, would not pose a threat. This was evidenced by President Masoud Pezeshkian\u2019s August statement, in which he expressed the opinion that talk of TRIPP\u2019s threats to Iran was \u201cgreatly exaggerated\u201d<\/em>.<\/p>\n

Iranian conservatives, apparently, used the reformists\u2019 arguments to remove the issue of their promised opposition to the American initiative from the agenda and avoid new reasons for a resumption of U.S.\u2013Iranian confrontation. Objectively, Iran was not ready for forceful intervention in the construction of a regional route under U.S. auspices, to which it formally has no direct relation. Consequently, Tehran preferred to leave TRIPP beyond the \u201cred line\u201d drawn before the USA to save face and avoid creating new grounds for military conflict.<\/p>\n

However, the situation changed radically after the start of the new war against Iran on February 28, 2026, unleashed by the U.S.\u2013Israeli coalition. The existential threat to the entire system of power in the IRI and the risk of losing state sovereignty altogether led to the removal of the issue of discretion and extreme caution in relations with the USA. Donald Trump left the IRI\u2019s military-political leadership no choice but to defend themselves by all available means and was forced to face not only military losses. Iranian attacks on the oil and gas, logistical, and technological infrastructure of U.S.-allied Middle Eastern countries indicate that Tehran is ignoring any \u201cred lines\u201d in its pursuit of inflicting maximum damage on U.S. military and financial-economic interests in the region.<\/p>\n

The expert community monitoring TRIPP is nearly unanimous: the \u201cTrump Route<\/em>\u201d infrastructure, regardless of its stage of readiness, would inevitably have been attacked by Tehran during the current conflict. Iran demonstrated its readiness to close the Strait of Hormuz \u2013 the key global maritime artery for hydrocarbon exports \u2013 ignoring the interests of the international community. In view of this, it seems unlikely that the land route through Armenian Syunik would have escaped a similar fate. Consequently, if the U.S.-Iranian conflict is prolonged or maintains a sluggish character, project implementation will be postponed due to the permanent threat of strikes from Tehran.<\/p>\n

The continuation of the conflict in any form will hinder the flow of private investment upon which Washington and Yerevan pinned their hopes. If the U.S.\u2013Iranian conflict ends in a lasting peace involving the lifting of sanctions, the unfreezing of international assets, and the establishment of trade ties, the geopolitical and economic significance of TRIPP will significantly decrease. In this case, the route will lose profitability on a global scale, as Iran itself, being \u201crehabilitated<\/em>\u201d and open for cooperation, will become the most convenient continental transit platform. Advancing the \u201cTrump Route<\/em>\u201d project in such a situation would benefit only Azerbaijan and Turkey in the context of their plans to connect the geographically fragmented \u201cTurkic world<\/em>\u201d via the so-called \u201cZangezur Corridor<\/em>\u201d.<\/p>\n

However, in a disposition where the USA loses interest in TRIPP, the Turkish-Azerbaijani initiative will lose weight substantially. It cannot be realized without Tehran\u2019s consent, which is unlikely to show loyalty to a project for unhindered land connection of the OTS alliance via a trans-territorial corridor through sovereign Armenian land. The IRI would most likely prevent the route\u2019s functioning in such a format under the threat of force, a stance the Russian Federation might support based on its own concerns regarding the OTS and geopolitical interests in the South Caucasus.<\/p>\n

In summary: without coordination with the current authorities in Tehran and obtaining corresponding guarantees, TRIPP will remain unviable, under a permanent security threat, inevitably leading to an investment deficit. If the anti-Iranian coalition succeeds in changing the regime in Tehran to one loyal to the West without violating Iranian sovereignty and territorial integrity, the \u201cTrump Corridor<\/em>\u201d will naturally lose its profitability. Turkey and Azerbaijan would remain the only beneficiaries, but without Western support it will be difficult for them to reformat the project into an element of the intra-Turkic integration agenda.<\/p>\n

3. <\/strong>Political crisis and the prospect of change of power in the USA<\/strong><\/h4>\n

The protracted impasse concerning Iran has adversely affected Donald Trump\u2019s approval rating and collectively diminished the standing of the U.S. Republican Party. Analysts suggest the Democratic Party already has significant chances of removing D. Trump through impeachment. However, to ensure guaranteed success, they will likely wait for the November mid-term elections, after which, according to all polls, Republicans may lose their majority in both chambers of the Congress. Under such a configuration, the President will lose support on Capitol Hill, making the impeachment process nearly certain to succeed.<\/p>\n

Democrats are convinced that by that time, D. Trump will be unable to resolve the Israeli-Iranian aspect of his foreign policy and, most significantly, the Iranian failure will affect the standing of J. D. Vance \u2013 the strongest Republican candidate for the next presidential election. His attempts to rectify the situation through negotiations with Tehran currently do not inspire optimism.<\/p>\n

In any case, the current White House administration risks facing an early departure, accompanied by an unprecedented political and legal review of its activities in U.S. history. According to independent experts, the scandal surrounding the so-called \u201cEpstein case\u201d<\/em>, the Iranian war, and a significant array of controversial decisions by Donald Trump both domestically and internationally are fraught with the discredit of his entire presidency and a process of cardinal reassessment of his initiatives by the new U.S. authorities. It is possible that TRIPP, inextricably linked to Trump\u2019s name and considered his \u201cpersonal achievement\u201d<\/em>, will quickly gain a reputation as an initiative lacking prospects in the new geopolitical realities of Western Asia and representing no substantial value in the context of U.S. national interests.<\/p>\n

4. <\/strong>Armenia\u2019s internal political factor: risk of obligation revision<\/strong><\/h4>\n

The prospects for TRIPP are directly dependent on the internal political situation in Armenia. This circumstance is not given due attention; however, in the event of an Armenian opposition victory in the elections and their projected revision of the current government\u2019s foreign policy portfolio, the legal, economic, and technical basis of the \u201cTrump Road<\/em>\u201d project could be reviewed by Yerevan. Furthermore, it could involve the denunciation of the Washington Declaration altogether if the Republic of Armenia under a new government recognizes the \u201cCivil Contract\u201d Party\u2019s activities as contrary to legislation, sovereignty, and national interests.<\/p>\n

Such a scenario is possible given the high probability of U.S. positions weakening in this region due to the anti-Iranian campaign and Russia\u2019s increased activity in the South Caucasus. Even without denunciation, Yerevan, with the tacit support of Moscow and Tehran, could systematically delay the process of coordinating project details and potentially seek a revision of the entire configuration of TRIPP beneficiaries, acting in its own interests as well as those of the IRI and the RF. In this case, the chances of Washington, Ankara, and Bakus to force Yerevan into a fast-tracked fulfillment of previous TRIPP agreements by legal means are assessed as extremely low, since the \u201cTrump Corridor<\/em>\u201d project is subject to implementation exclusively in conjunction with the final signing of a comprehensive Armenian-Azerbaijani peace deal. Without this document, TRIPP remains merely a declaration not providing for mandatory execution. Consequently, the key question is whether Baku (in the event of power change in Yerevan) will be ready to accept new Armenian conditions for the comprehensive peace treaty to save TRIPP. Such a framing radically changes the assessment of the \u201cTrump Corridor<\/em>\u201d agenda, making it directly dependent on Yerevan\u2019s position and, consequently, on the degree of RF and IRI influence on the new Armenian leadership.<\/p>\n

5. <\/strong>Summary<\/strong><\/h4>\n

Given all these factors, the prospects for TRIPP\u2019s implementation, at least in the form presented to the public, appear uncertain. The signatory parties continue to declare that preparatory work is on schedule, but the rapidly changing regional situation and the deepening power crisis in the USA indicate otherwise. Several American analysts already confidently state that TRIPP is an unviable project born of Trump\u2019s ambitions and \u201clacking independent economic justification\u201d<\/em>. Consequently, this project not only fails to secure the peaceful Armenian-Azerbaijani agenda but may become one of the reasons for its failure and, as a result, a new round of escalation in the South Caucasus.<\/p>\n

Thus, with its loud presentation followed by a demonstration of illusory prospects upon contact with reality, TRIPP repeats the fate of many geopolitical projects that were also originally masked as economically expedient and profitable programs.<\/p>\n

[1]<\/a> The original (in Rus.) was posted on our website on 10.07.2025.<\/p>\n

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[vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text css=”” woodmart_inline=”no” text_larger=”no”] ARVAK Center comment, April 20, 2026[1] [\/vc_column_text][\/vc_column][\/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text css=”” woodmart_inline=”no” text_larger=”no”] 1. 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