{"id":19049,"date":"2026-02-23T13:41:41","date_gmt":"2026-02-23T09:41:41","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/arvak.am\/?p=19049"},"modified":"2026-02-23T21:29:58","modified_gmt":"2026-02-23T17:29:58","slug":"armenian-railroad-vectors-and-directions","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/arvak.am\/en\/armenian-railroad-vectors-and-directions\/","title":{"rendered":"Armenian railroad: vectors and directions"},"content":{"rendered":"

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ARVAK Center comment, February 23.02.2026 [1]<\/sup><\/strong><\/a><\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

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1. An Anniversary ultimatum: new demands for SCR<\/h4>\n

On February 13, 2026 \u2013 exactly 18 years to the day since the signing of the agreement transferring Armenian railroads to the management of a Russian operator \u2013 Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan stated at a briefing that he does not rule out selling the concession of the South Caucasus Railway (SCR) to \u201csome country friendly to both Russia and Armenia<\/em>\u201d [1]. He noted that through personal conversations with the top leadership of the Russian Federation, he became convinced of Moscow\u2019s understanding of the opportunities opening up for Armenia and its readiness to support projects aimed at strengthening Yerevan\u2019s transit potential.<\/p>\n

However, the Prime Minister also expressed regret that potential Armenian partners are allegedly making the alienation of the Russian Federation\u2019s concession rights a prerequisite for Armenia\u2019s inclusion in regional transit megaprojects. They reportedly view cooperation with Russia as high-risk and do not wish for the Armenian section of trade routes to remain under Russian control.<\/p>\n

2. From state management to a \u201cthird party\u201d: the transformation of N. Pashinyan\u2019s rhetoric<\/h4>\n

This is not the first time N. Pashinyan has raised the issue of revising the 2008 interstate agreement. In December 2025, the Prime Minister stated that Yerevan had approached Moscow with a proposal to quickly restore railway sections leading to the borders of Turkey and Azerbaijan. According to Pashinyan, should the Russian side encounter difficulties in financing or repairs, Armenia would be forced to terminate the concession agreement. While in December 2025 the rhetoric focused on returning the concession to state management [2], he has now openly declared that the government is considering transferring it to a third party. In this context, Kazakhstan, the UAE, and Qatar were mentioned as examples.<\/p>\n

While the Russian side initially criticized Pashinyan\u2019s December statements, only a day before the February briefing \u2013 where the head of the Armenian government essentially threatened to revoke the concession \u2013 Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexei Overchuk stated Moscow\u2019s readiness to consider Yerevan\u2019s proposal and jointly develop a plan to integrate SCR infrastructure into the region\u2019s announced transit routes [3]. This statement signified Moscow\u2019s willingness to modernize Armenia\u2019s entire railway system almost from scratch, provided the 18-year-old agreement remains in force and Russian management continues.<\/p>\n

3. Economic blackmail or a political strategy for displacement<\/h4>\n

A number of Armenian experts believe that Pashinyan\u2019s categorical stance is intended to prod the Russian side into accelerating work and stimulating a flow of major investments into SCR infrastructure. At the same time, other analysts argue that the current Armenian government is deliberately provoking the Russian Federation to create grounds for terminating the February 13, 2008, agreement, which was signed for 30 years with a 10-year extension option [4].<\/p>\n

According to this view, the political decision to strip Russia of its management rights over Armenian rail has already been made, and a successor party for the concession has likely been chosen. Analysts justify this conviction by pointing to the broader strategic program of the current Armenian leadership aimed at the systematic displacement of Russia and its capital from key sectors of the economy: energy, logistics, and mining.<\/p>\n

Notably, in November 2025, the Armenian government revoked the license of \u201cElectric Networks of Armenia<\/em>\u201d (ENA), held by \u201cTashir Capital<\/em>\u201d, a company owned by a Russian businessman Samvel Karapetyan [5]. Following this, on February 9, 2026, Prime Minister Pashinyan and U.S. Vice President J.D. Vance signed a \u201cStatement of Cooperation on Atomic Energy\u201d, which envisions the long-term replacement of the foundational Armenian-Russian nuclear partnership with an American program for small modular reactors (SMRs) [6]. Now, the focus has shifted to the railway, the management rights of which are considered one of Russia\u2019s primary strategic assets in Armenia. Experts suggest these measures are part of a comprehensive effort to eliminate residual Russian influence. By demanding modernization, the Armenian authorities likely seek not to improve the platforms but to create justifications for their subsequent nationalization and transfer to other interested parties.<\/p>\n

4. J.D. Vance\u2019s visit and the radicalization of Yerevan\u2019s position<\/h4>\n

The root of this problem is political rather than economic, a fact reinforced by J.D. Vance\u2019s visit to Armenia. It was immediately following this visit that Prime Minister Pashinyan radicalized his rhetoric, effectively suggesting there is no alternative but to transfer the railroads to a third party, regardless of Moscow\u2019s readiness to invest in their restoration.<\/p>\n

In this context, it is noteworthy that the Armenian opposition\u2019s reaction was relatively weak, confined mostly to general warnings about the potential transfer of management to a \u201cTurkish-Azerbaijani tandem\u201d. Only Robert Kocharyan, leader of the \u201cArmenia\u201d political alliance and former president, addressed the topic in a rational and polemical manner. At a press conference in Yerevan on January 29, 2026, he stated that the TRIPP project, centered on a rail link through Armenia\u2019s Syunik province, cannot be considered effective for Armenia unless it includes communications from the eastern borders of Nakhijevan to Yeraskh in Armenia [7]. According to the former president, only under such conditions would American management guarantee a benefit for Armenia by providing a short and profitable route to its southern regions and the Iranian border. Furthermore, Kocharyan emphasized that Armenia would benefit if countries such as Russia and China participated in the development and operation of this route.<\/p>\n

5. Kocharyan\u2019s alternative: the Abkhazian railway<\/h4>\n

On February 13, 2026, Kocharyan highlighted the Abkhazian railway, arguing that its unblocking would provide Armenia with a shorter and more cost-effective link to Russia compared to routes passing through Azerbaijan. According to R. Kocharyan, restarting the Abkhazian section is strategically beneficial for Russia, Turkey, Armenia, and Georgia \u2013 the latter of which fears losing its competitive edge in transit if it does not facilitate a route to Russia [8]. The former president described the reluctance to pursue this task as a \u201ccrime<\/em>\u201d, asserting that its resolution would free Armenia from dependency on \u201cinternational partners<\/em>\u201d who threaten to leave the country out of regional processes.<\/p>\n

In essence, the former president seeks to demonstrate that the government\u2019s actions are driven solely by political motives. However, his proposed \u201calternative<\/em>\u201d is itself debatable. The unblocking of the Abkhazian railway has been discussed for over 30 years without significant progress. While R. Kocharyan is economically correct, political factors have consistently derailed negotiations.<\/p>\n

6. The Turkish-Azerbaijani vector and Russian isolation<\/h4>\n

Turkey\u2019s interest in restarting the Tbilisi\u2013Sukhumi\u2013Sochi line also remains doubtful. Following the 2020 events in the South Caucasus and against the backdrop of the Russia\u2013Ukraine war, Ankara shifted its priorities. Turkey is now focused on West\u2013East routes opening a path to Central Asia, rather than the North\u2013South direction, which would allow Russia to maintain its foothold in the Black Sea\u2013Caspian region. In this matter, Ankara is supported by Baku, which allows for the launch of North\u2013South transit routes only through its own territory and under its own control.<\/p>\n

Azerbaijan possesses significant economic leverage over Georgia to block any hypothetical initiative regarding Abkhazia and demonstrates total rejection of Armenian initiatives that would allow Yerevan to become a regional transit hub. This was reaffirmed by Ilham Aliyev\u2019s statements at the Munich Security Conference in February 2026. First, he expressed doubt regarding the feasibility of connecting the Armenian rail branch in Yeraskh to the Kars\u2013Igd\u0131r\u2013Nakhijevan\u2013Baku route. Second, he ironically hinted that Pashinyan\u2019s \u201cmythical<\/em>\u201d \u201cCrossroads of Peace\u201d project is not destined to become a reality [9].<\/p>\n

7. Conclusion: a dilemma for Moscow<\/h4>\n

The new geopolitical reality forces Armenia to settle for a role as a transit link exclusively within the logic of the West\u2013East axis, utilizing route configurations acceptable to Turkey and Azerbaijan. Armenia\u2019s rail link with Russia to the north and Iran to the south will, in both cases, have to pass through Azerbaijani territory, placing Yerevan in critical economic dependence on Baku.<\/p>\n

Moscow, for its part, faces a difficult dilemma: either it abandons SCR and exits the game \u2013 move that fundamentally contradicts its strategic interests in the South Caucasus \u2013 or betting on potential shifts in Armenia\u2019s domestic political situation, it increases investment in an infrastructure that, should Pashinyan remain in power, will be used to serve the interests of Russia\u2019s geopolitical rivals.<\/p>\n

References<\/strong><\/h4>\n

[1]\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 \u00ab\u041f\u0430\u0448\u0438\u043d\u044f\u043d \u043f\u0440\u0435\u0434\u043b\u043e\u0436\u0438\u043b \u0420\u0424 \u043f\u0440\u043e\u0434\u0430\u0442\u044c \u043a\u043e\u043d\u0446\u0435\u0441\u0441\u0438\u044e \u043d\u0430 \u0436\/\u0434 \u0410\u0440\u043c\u0435\u043d\u0438\u0438 \u0442\u0440\u0435\u0442\u044c\u0435\u0439 \u0441\u0442\u0440\u0430\u043d\u0435\u00bb. \u0412\u0435\u0434\u043e\u043c\u043e\u0441\u0442\u0438<\/em>, 14.02.2026, https:\/\/www.vedomosti.ru\/politics\/news\/2026\/02\/14\/ 1176359-pashinyan-predlozhil-prodat<\/a> (\u0434\u0430\u0442\u0430 \u043e\u0431\u0440\u0430\u0449\u0435\u043d\u0438\u044f: 16.02.2026).<\/p>\n

[2]\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 \u00ab\u041f\u0430\u0448\u0438\u043d\u044f\u043d \u0438 \u041f\u0443\u0442\u0438\u043d \u043e\u0431\u0441\u0443\u0436\u0434\u0430\u043b\u0438 \u0432\u043e\u043f\u0440\u043e\u0441 \u0432\u043e\u0441\u0441\u0442\u0430\u043d\u043e\u0432\u043b\u0435\u043d\u0438\u044f \u0443\u0447\u0430\u0441\u0442\u043a\u043e\u0432 \u0436\u0435\u043b\u0435\u0437\u043d\u043e\u0439 \u0434\u043e\u0440\u043e\u0433\u0438 \u0432 \u0410\u0440\u043c\u0435\u043d\u0438\u0438\u00bb. ARKA<\/em> News<\/em> Agency<\/em>, 25.12.2025, https:\/\/arka.am\/news\/economy\/pashinyan-i- putin-obsuzhdali-vopros-vosstanovleniya-uchastkov-zheleznoy-dorogi-v-armenii\/<\/a> (\u0434\u0430\u0442\u0430 \u043e\u0431\u0440\u0430\u0449\u0435\u043d\u0438\u044f: 16.02.2026).<\/p>\n

[3]\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 \u00ab\u0420\u043e\u0441\u0441\u0438\u044f \u043f\u043e\u043c\u043e\u0436\u0435\u0442 \u0410\u0440\u043c\u0435\u043d\u0438\u0438 \u043d\u0430\u043b\u0430\u0434\u0438\u0442\u044c \u0436\u0435\u043b\u0435\u0437\u043d\u043e\u0434\u043e\u0440\u043e\u0436\u043d\u043e\u0435 \u0441\u043e\u043e\u0431\u0449\u0435\u043d\u0438\u0435 \u0441 \u0410\u0437\u0435\u0440\u0431\u0430\u0439\u0434\u0436\u0430\u043d\u043e\u043c \u0438 \u0422\u0443\u0440\u0446\u0438\u0435\u0439\u00bb. ARKA<\/em> News<\/em> Agency<\/em>, 12.02.2026, https:\/\/arka.am\/news\/economy\/rossiya- pomozhet-armenii-naladit-zheleznodorozhnoe-soobshchenie-s-azerbaydzhanom-i-turtsiey\/<\/a> (\u0434\u0430\u0442\u0430 \u043e\u0431\u0440\u0430\u0449\u0435\u043d\u0438\u044f: 16.02.2026).<\/p>\n

[4]\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 \u00ab\u0415\u0440\u0435\u0432\u0430\u043d \u0431\u043e\u043b\u044c\u0448\u0435 \u043d\u0435 \u0443\u0441\u0442\u0440\u0430\u0438\u0432\u0430\u0435\u0442 \u0440\u043e\u0441\u0441\u0438\u0439\u0441\u043a\u0430\u044f \u043a\u043e\u043d\u0446\u0435\u0441\u0441\u0438\u044f \u043d\u0430 \u0436\u0435\u043b\u0435\u0437\u043d\u044b\u0435 \u0434\u043e\u0440\u043e\u0433\u0438 \u0410\u0440\u043c\u0435\u043d\u0438\u0438\u00bb. \u0420\u0438\u0442\u043c \u0415\u0432\u0440\u0430\u0437\u0438\u0438<\/em>, 15.02.2026, https:\/\/www.ritmeurasia.ru\/news–2026-02-15\u2013erevan- bolshe-ne-ustraivaet-rossijskaja-koncessija-na-zheleznye-dorogi-armenii-85868<\/a> (\u0434\u0430\u0442\u0430 \u043e\u0431\u0440\u0430\u0449\u0435\u043d\u0438\u044f: 16.02.2026).<\/p>\n

\u00a0[5]\u00a0\u00a0 \u00ab\u0417\u0410\u041e \u00ab\u042d\u043b\u0435\u043a\u0442\u0440\u043e\u0441\u0435\u0442\u0438 \u0410\u0440\u043c\u0435\u043d\u0438\u0438\u00bb \u043b\u0438\u0448\u0435\u043d\u043e \u043b\u0438\u0446\u0435\u043d\u0437\u0438\u0438 \u043d\u0430 \u0440\u0430\u0441\u043f\u0440\u0435\u0434\u0435\u043b\u0435\u043d\u0438\u0435 \u044d\u043b\u0435\u043a\u0442\u0440\u043e\u044d\u043d\u0435\u0440\u0433\u0438\u0438 \u0438 \u043c\u043e\u0449\u043d\u043e\u0441\u0442\u0438\u00bb. ARKA News Agency<\/em>, 17.11.2025, https:\/\/arka.am\/news\/economy\/zao- elektroseti-armenii-lisheno-litsenzii-na-raspredelenie-elektroenergii-i-moshchnosti-\/<\/a> (\u0434\u0430\u0442\u0430 \u043e\u0431\u0440\u0430\u0449\u0435\u043d\u0438\u044f: 07.02.2026).<\/p>\n

[6]\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 \u00ab\u0427\u0442\u043e \u0437\u0430\u0441\u0442\u0430\u0432\u0438\u043b\u043e \u0432\u043b\u0430\u0441\u0442\u0438 \u0410\u0440\u043c\u0435\u043d\u0438\u0438 \u0441\u043f\u0435\u0448\u043d\u043e \u043f\u043e\u0434\u043f\u0438\u0441\u0430\u0442\u044c \u0441 \u0412\u044d\u043d\u0441\u043e\u043c \u0437\u0430\u044f\u0432\u043b\u0435\u043d\u0438\u0435 \u043e \u043c\u043e\u0434\u0443\u043b\u044c\u043d\u044b\u0445 \u0410\u042d\u0421: \u044d\u043a\u0441\u043f\u0435\u0440\u0442\u00bb. Sputnik<\/em> Armenia<\/em>, 11.02.2026, https:\/\/am.sputniknews.ru\/20260211\/chto- zastavilo-vlasti-armenii-speshno-podpisat-s-vensom-zayavlenie-o-modulnykh-aes-ekspert–98653116.html<\/a> (\u0434\u0430\u0442\u0430 \u043e\u0431\u0440\u0430\u0449\u0435\u043d\u0438\u044f: 17.02.2026).<\/p>\n

[7]\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 \u00ab\u041a\u043e\u0447\u0430\u0440\u044f\u043d \u043d\u0430\u0437\u0432\u0430\u043b \u043f\u0440\u043e\u0435\u043a\u0442 TRIPP \u043a\u0440\u0443\u043f\u043d\u0435\u0439\u0448\u0435\u0439 \u0443\u0433\u0440\u043e\u0437\u043e\u0439 \u0431\u0435\u0437\u043e\u043f\u0430\u0441\u043d\u043e\u0441\u0442\u0438 \u0410\u0440\u043c\u0435\u043d\u0438\u0438\u00bb. \u0413\u043e\u043b\u043e\u0441 \u0410\u0440\u043c\u0435\u043d\u0438\u0438<\/em>, 29.01.2026, https:\/\/www.golosarmenii.am\/\u043a\u043e\u0447\u0430\u0440\u044f\u043d-\u043d\u0430\u0437\u0432\u0430\u043b-\u043f\u0440\u043e\u0435\u043a\u0442-tripp- \u043a\u0440\u0443\u043f\u043d\u0435\u0439\u0448\u0435\u0439-\u0443\u0433\/<\/a> (\u0434\u0430\u0442\u0430 \u043e\u0431\u0440\u0430\u0449\u0435\u043d\u0438\u044f: 17.02.2026).<\/p>\n

[8]\u00a0\u00a0 \u00ab\u0420\u043e\u0431\u0435\u0440\u0442 \u041a\u043e\u0447\u0430\u0440\u044f\u043d: \u0416\/\u0414 \u0441\u043e\u043e\u0431\u0449\u0435\u043d\u0438\u0435 \u0447\u0435\u0440\u0435\u0437 \u0413\u0440\u0443\u0437\u0438\u044e \u0438 \u0410\u0431\u0445\u0430\u0437\u0438\u044e \u2013 \u043f\u043e\u043b\u043d\u043e\u0441\u0442\u044c\u044e \u0440\u0435\u0430\u043b\u0438\u0441\u0442\u0438\u0447\u043d\u044b\u0439 \u043f\u0440\u043e\u0435\u043a\u0442, \u043a\u043e\u0442\u043e\u0440\u044b\u043c \u043d\u0430\u0434\u043e \u0437\u0430\u043d\u0438\u043c\u0430\u0442\u044c\u0441\u044f\u00bb. NEWS<\/em>.<\/em>am<\/em>, 13.02.2026, https:\/\/news.am\/rus\/news\/ 930469.html<\/a> (\u0434\u0430\u0442\u0430 \u043e\u0431\u0440\u0430\u0449\u0435\u043d\u0438\u044f: 17.02.2026).<\/p>\n

[9]\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 \u00ab\u041e\u043d \u0438 \u043f\u0435\u0440\u0435\u0437\u0430\u043f\u0443\u0441\u0442\u0438\u0442 \u0432\u0430\u0448 \u00ab\u041f\u0435\u0440\u0435\u043a\u0440\u0435\u0441\u0442\u043e\u043a \u043c\u0438\u0440\u0430\u00bb\u00bb – \u0412\u0418\u0414\u0415\u041e. Qafqazinfo<\/em>, 14.02.2026, https:\/\/qafqazinfo.az\/news\/detailru\/-61542<\/a> (\u0434\u0430\u0442\u0430 \u043e\u0431\u0440\u0430\u0449\u0435\u043d\u0438\u044f: 18.02.2026).<\/p>\n

[1]<\/a> The original (in Rus.) was posted on our website on 23.03.2026.<\/p>\n

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An Anniversary ultimatum: new demands<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":19040,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[143],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-19049","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-comments"],"yoast_head":"\nArmenian railroad: vectors and directions - \u0531\u2024\u054c\u2024\u054e\u2024\u0531\u2024\u053f\u2024<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/arvak.am\/en\/armenian-railroad-vectors-and-directions\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Armenian railroad: vectors and directions - \u0531\u2024\u054c\u2024\u054e\u2024\u0531\u2024\u053f\u2024\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"[vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text css=”” woodmart_inline=”no” text_larger=”no”] ARVAK Center comment, February 23.02.2026 [1] [\/vc_column_text][\/vc_column][\/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text css=”” woodmart_inline=”no” text_larger=”no”] 1. 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