{"id":18888,"date":"2026-01-26T18:23:16","date_gmt":"2026-01-26T14:23:16","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/arvak.am\/?p=18888"},"modified":"2026-01-28T23:54:29","modified_gmt":"2026-01-28T19:54:29","slug":"nato-crisis-and-turkeys-geopolitical-anxiety","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/arvak.am\/en\/nato-crisis-and-turkeys-geopolitical-anxiety\/","title":{"rendered":"NATO crisis and Turkey\u2019s geopolitical anxiety"},"content":{"rendered":"

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ARVAK Center comment, 28.01.2026 [1]<\/sup><\/strong><\/a><\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

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  1. \n

    NATO crisis and Turkey\u2019s geopolitical anxiety<\/strong><\/h4>\n<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

    Turkish mass media are broadcasting the growing alarm of the country\u2019s military-political establishment regarding the future of NATO. The North Atlantic Alliance, in which Turkey has held a key position due to its geopolitical location and military potential, is undergoing an unprecedented crisis that could lead to the dissolution of this military-political union.<\/p>\n

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    1. \n

      Origins of the systemic crisis: from \u201cgendarme\u201d to stagnation<\/strong><\/h4>\n<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

      The intra-systemic problems of NATO are rooted in the 1990s, when, following the collapse of the USSR, the North Atlantic Alliance shifted from an institution for deterring the \u201cglobal communist threat<\/em>\u201d into a \u201cgendarme\u201d of a unipolar world. The expansion of NATO to the East, unmotivated by real security challenges to the U.S. or its European allies, provoked post-Soviet Russia to change its integration vector with the Western world and remobilize its deterrent potential, emphasizing critical nuclear defense components.<\/p>\n

      The direct approach of the Alliance to Russian borders revived the existential threat of nuclear escalation, which inevitably caused friction among certain members. Simultaneously, the first signs of internal imbalance appeared: some countries (primarily those admitted post-USSR) pursued a policy of active militarization, while many \u201cveteran states\u201d faced a stagnation of their military-industrial complexes (MIC) and army building due to the loss of priority in defense funding.<\/p>\n

      Furthermore, the NATO system was \u201cupended\u201d by perpetual large-scale military operations by its most influential members, who bypassed consensus regarding the use of the organization\u2019s defense potential outside its strategic zones. This resulted in interventionist wars in the former Yugoslavia, Iraq, Afghanistan, and Libya, significantly deepening the crisis of mutual understanding within the bloc.<\/p>\n

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      1. \n

        Devaluation of meaning and U.S. pragmatism<\/strong><\/h4>\n<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

        The devaluation of the ideological foundations of this military-political union \u2013 following the exit of the Warsaw Pact as the primary antagonistic force \u2013 led to a disorientation of NATO\u2019s priorities and a loss of its raison d’\u00eatre<\/em>, at least in its previous formats. Projecting the ghost of a communist threat onto an exhausted and objectively weakened Russia failed, calling into question the primary purpose of the Alliance and the solidarity of its members on the global security agenda.<\/p>\n

        As a result, NATO was formally preserved and even expanded to manage its members, intimidate non-compliant international actors, provide a vast market for the MIC, and accumulate colossal financial resources that primarily serve the economic interests of the bloc\u2019s leader \u2013 the United States.<\/p>\n

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        1. \n

          Turkey in the Alliance: historical experience and the \u201cnuclear umbrella\u201d<\/strong><\/h4>\n<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

          Throughout its membership in NATO (since 1952), Turkey has directly experienced both significant positive results of military-political integration and the negative aspects of being in the Alliance. It was the world\u2019s bipolarity (the NATO\u2013Warsaw Pact antagonism) that drove Turkey into the bloc, which enabled it to form a modern Western-style army, achieve substantial technological growth, and step under the \u201cnuclear umbrella<\/em>\u201d of the U.S. and other allies.<\/p>\n

          NATO\u2019s focus on deterring the Soviet threat also facilitated Ankara\u2019s relatively unimpeded projection of power during the Greco-Turkish rivalry in the Mediterranean (e.g., the 1974 invasion of Cyprus), which was not prevented by allies due to the recognition of Turkey\u2019s critical role on the anti-Soviet southern flank. In fact, this action was the first harbinger of crisis potential within NATO, leading to a lingering phase of low-intensity military confrontation between two member states (Greece joined NATO in 1952, simultaneously with Turkey).<\/p>\n

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          1. \n

            Post-Soviet transformation and loss of exclusivity<\/strong><\/h4>\n<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

            The collapse of the USSR weakened Turkey\u2019s role in NATO\u2019s configuration. Ankara lost its tacit status as the only member directly bordering the primary traditional rival \u2013 Russia \u2013ceding this position to former Warsaw Pact and Baltic states. Additionally, the reformatting of the secular Kemalist model pushed Turkey toward a more active and independent policy focused on Asia.<\/p>\n

            Consequently, while formally maintaining full membership, Turkey gradually lost its exclusive relationship with the bloc\u2019s leader \u2013 the United States. This resulted in the loss of access to advanced American military technology (e.g., exclusion from missile defense programs, the cancellation of the F-35 deal). Furthermore, internal NATO tensions encouraged the formation of \u201csilent alliances<\/em>\u201d with a distinct anti-Turkish orientation (e.g., French-Greek cooperation). In the same vein, a new alliance is currently forming in the Eastern Mediterranean between Cyprus, Greece, and Israel \u2013 the latter being a \u201cMajor Non-NATO Ally<\/em>\u201d (MNNA) since 1987, receiving unprecedented U.S. support.<\/p>\n

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            1. \n

              Misuse of status and the \u201cUkrainian factor\u201d<\/strong><\/h4>\n<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

              Internal decentralization has sparked an open discourse among members regarding the feasibility of Turkey\u2019s continued presence in NATO. Ankara\u2019s assertiveness in the Eastern Mediterranean and the Balkans, coupled with its neo-Ottoman tendencies, forces opponents within the Alliance to question Turkey\u2019s right to security preferences, specifically the \u201cnuclear umbrella<\/em>\u201d.<\/p>\n

              Critics argue that Ankara uses this extraordinary power to pursue its own geopolitical initiative, often contradicting NATO\u2019s collective interests. Many European members consider this a blatant misuse of the Alliance\u2019s image and military potential for Ankara\u2019s independent geopolitical maneuvers. Furthermore, many NATO countries are dissatisfied with Turkey\u2019s passive stance regarding Ukraine and its rapprochement with Moscow. Ankara was specifically blamed for exploiting the NATO principle of consensus; by using its veto power, Turkey blocked the accession of Sweden and Finland, bringing NATO\u2019s systemic crisis into the public eye and stalling Russian \u201ccontainment\u201d efforts in Northern Europe and the Baltics.<\/p>\n

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              1. \n

                The Greenland dilemma and the breakdown of the security system<\/strong><\/h4>\n<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

                Despite these internal problems, Turkey\u2019s NATO membership remained its primary pillar for geopolitical initiative. Therefore, the threat of a NATO collapse deeply concerns Ankara, as it faces a disorientation of its defense doctrine and the loss of its \u201cnuclear shield<\/em>\u201d. While the U.S. might offer a bilateral nuclear protection format, it cannot compensate for the loss of the institutional global security system that Turkey utilized for seven decades.<\/p>\n

                Ankara recognizes that the White House\u2019s program to \u201cexpropriate\u201d Greenland is no longer an eccentric idea but a systemic U.S. need for absolute possession of a strategic landmass in the North Atlantic. In this new system, Europe ceases to be the primary consumer of Washington\u2019s security guarantees, rendering NATO in its current format irrelevant. Donald Trump\u2019s statements regarding the choice between Greenland and NATO demonstrate that the Alliance\u2019s significance to the U.S. elite has been devalued. The dilemma has likely already been decided in favor of Greenland\u2019s annexation.<\/p>\n

                This prospect threatens to transform the unified security system into fragmented local alliances: Anglo-American, U.S.-Israeli, Franco-German, and Eastern European, which could be either situational or long-term.<\/p>\n

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                1. \n

                  Risks for Ankara and preparing for the worst<\/strong><\/h4>\n<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

                  Optimistic views that the European flank can remain intact without the U.S. do not withstand criticism. Moreover, a U.S. exit and the \u201cGreenland crisis\u201d could trigger the collapse of the European Union, which largely overlaps with NATO\u2019s borders and relies on its security guarantees.<\/p>\n

                  For Turkey, this is a high-risk scenario. The collapse of NATO would deprive the country of the ability to effectively control the \u201cKurdish problem\u201d, deter destabilization in the Arab world, or compete with Israel. Its expansionism in the South Caucasus and Central Asia would be jeopardized. Instead, Ankara would face a critical Greco-Israeli alliance, potentially joined by France. These are existential challenges not only to external security but also to an internal organization based on the ruling elite\u2019s commitment to returning Turkey to its former greatness.<\/p>\n

                  Turkey has been preparing for this \u201cworst-case scenario\u201d by expanding its own MIC (naval shipbuilding, UAVs, and missile systems). It has also established a network of military bases in Syria, Azerbaijan, Libya, Somalia, and Qatar.<\/p>\n

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                  1. \n

                    The Asian vector: searching for a new \u201cnuclear shield\u201d<\/strong><\/h4>\n<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

                    The most fundamental task for Ankara remains finding an alternative to the \u201cnuclear umbrella\u201d. This explains the formation of the recently announced alliance between Turkey, Saudi Arabia, and Pakistan. This bloc aims to stabilize a region vulnerable to the U.S.\u2013China confrontation and the destabilization of Iran.<\/p>\n

                    Experts note this bloc aims to implement a synergy of Saudi financial capacity, Turkish technological progress, and Pakistan\u2019s \u201cnuclear shield<\/em>\u201d into a self-sufficient pole of power in Asia. While the participants share geopolitical interests and a common confessional identity (Sunnism), factors such as geographical distance and different political systems complicate the union\u2019s long-term stability. Nevertheless, the intense pace of negotiations suggests a shared fear of losing strategic security in a shifting global order.<\/p>\n

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                    1. \n

                      Conclusion<\/strong><\/h4>\n<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

                      Ankara is seriously preparing for NATO\u2019s potential collapse. The alliance with Pakistan and Saudi Arabia is currently the only real alternative. While not equal to NATO, it acquires existential importance for a country situated on the \u201cgeopolitical tectonic fault lines<\/em>\u201d.<\/p>\n

                      [1]<\/a> The original (in Rus.) was posted on our website on 26.01.2026.<\/p>\n

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