{"id":12808,"date":"2024-02-11T18:53:08","date_gmt":"2024-02-11T14:53:08","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/arvak.am\/?p=12808"},"modified":"2024-06-25T21:28:55","modified_gmt":"2024-06-25T17:28:55","slug":"azr-on-the-threshold-of-the-difficulties","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/arvak.am\/en\/azr-on-the-threshold-of-the-difficulties\/","title":{"rendered":"AzR is on the threshold of difficulties"},"content":{"rendered":"<div class=\"wpb-content-wrapper\"><p>[vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text css=&#8221;&#8221; woodmart_inline=&#8221;no&#8221; text_larger=&#8221;no&#8221;]<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><span style=\"color: #000080;\"><strong>ARVAK Center comment, 10.02.2024<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<p>[\/vc_column_text][\/vc_column][\/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text woodmart_inline=&#8221;no&#8221; text_larger=&#8221;no&#8221;]<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">According to <em>EADaily, <\/em>citing Azerbaijani sources, <em>\u201cState Oil Fund of Azerbaijan has collapsed revenue<\/em><em>s<\/em><em>\u201d<\/em><em>.<\/em><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">In January 2024, State Oil Fund of Azerbaijan (SOFAZ) revenues from Azeri\u2013Chirag\u2013Gunashli (ACG\u2013the Azerbaijan\u2019s largest oil block) amounted to $387.645.000, while, last January ACG revenues reached $625 million. The difference is more than obvious.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">According to international experts, the peak of production in all fields and the new indicators clearly show that every year the bulk of oil pumped out from the ACG is rapidly falling. If in 2022 this volume was 32.7 million tons, then in 2023 production fell to 30.2 million tons. According to the AzR Energy Ministry\u2019s forecasts, in 2024 this figure will drop to 29.5 million tons, in 2025 \u2013 to 28.3 million tons, in 2026 \u2013 to 27.5 million tons, and in 2027 \u2013 up to 26.9 million tons of oil.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">The above-mentioned actual and projected indicators show a steady decline in oil production in Azerbaijan, which will inevitably affect the revenues of the AzR Oil Fund, and consequently, incomes to the state budget and the country\u2019s entire economy. Even at the dawn of the implementation of the so-called \u201cContract of the Century\u201d, signed by Heydar Aliyev with international energy cartels in 1994, Azerbaijani politicians and expert circles convinced their society that the development of oil and gas fields would allow Azerbaijan, in addition to building\u00a0 a strong economy, to turn the oil fund into reliable financial \u201csafety cushion\u201d for the state, comparable in its assets to the Norwegian Oil Fund (Norwegian State Pension Fund) established in 1990. However, to date, the Norwegian fund has already accumulated capital in the amount of $1 trillion, while the Azerbaijani SOFAZ was able to collect only $40 to $50 billion. The Norwegian budget is practically not tied to the Oil Fund, and the country\u2019s economy is growing dynamically in a self-directing mode, without borrowing from the Fund (except for the \u201cCovid\u201d period of time), while the Azerbaijani economy and social sphere are constantly \u201cstumbling\u201d and is it is not possible keep them \u201cafloat\u201d without systematically draining of oil revenues from SOFAZ.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Inefficient economic management, widespread corruption in the state system and an authoritarian-clan model of governance contributed to the development of a practice of a systematic and unjustified waste of Azerbaijan&#8217;s oil revenues by the state budget. Thus, the \u201cGolden era\u201d of oil wealth was missed by the country\u2019s rulers, who failed to rid the AzR of \u201coil needle\u201d and to build an effective economy not directly depended on hydrocarbon exports, its volumes and international prices.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">At the same time, I. Aliyev is aware of the dangers threatening the country\u2019s economy, and, consequently, the prospects for his regime, soon, as evidenced by the indicators of almost zero economic growth over the past two or three years. It can be assumed that this is the reason for the haste of the Aliyev regime in the matter of strategic reformatting of the country\u2019s economy from the fossil sector to a logistics and transit priority, as well as a quick forceful solution of the Karabakh issue and imposing extraordinary presidential elections.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Perhaps, I. Aliyev is preparing for difficult times for himself and his country, but he is not telling the Azerbaijani society about this.<\/p>\n<p>[\/vc_column_text][\/vc_column][\/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column]<div id=\"wd-65e35aba6dee3\" class=\" wd-rs-65e35aba6dee3  wd-button-wrapper text-center\"><a href=\"https:\/\/arvak.am\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/azr-on-the-threshold-of-the-difficulties.pdf\" title=\"\" target=\"_blank\" class=\"btn btn-style-default btn-shape-rectangle btn-size-default\">Download publication<\/a><\/div>[\/vc_column][\/vc_row]<\/p>\n<\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>According to EADaily, citing Azerbaijani sources, \u201cState Oil Fund of Azerbaijan has collapsed revenues\u201d.<br \/>\nIn January 2024, State Oil Fund of Azerbaijan (SOFAZ) revenues from Azeri\u2013Chirag\u2013Gunashli (ACG\u2013the Azerbaijan\u2019s largest oil block) amounted to $387.645.000, while, last January ACG revenues reached $625 million. The difference is more than obvious.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":10873,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[143],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-12808","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-comments"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.3 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>AzR is on the threshold of difficulties - \u0531\u2024\u054c\u2024\u054e\u2024\u0531\u2024\u053f\u2024<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/arvak.am\/en\/azr-on-the-threshold-of-the-difficulties\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"AzR is on the threshold of difficulties - \u0531\u2024\u054c\u2024\u054e\u2024\u0531\u2024\u053f\u2024\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"According to EADaily, citing Azerbaijani sources, \u201cState Oil Fund of Azerbaijan has collapsed revenues\u201d. In January 2024, State Oil Fund of Azerbaijan (SOFAZ) revenues from Azeri\u2013Chirag\u2013Gunashli (ACG\u2013the Azerbaijan\u2019s largest oil block) amounted to $387.645.000, while, last January ACG revenues reached $625 million. 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